IPL 2026 Auction Rater — 10 Most Overpaid Players This Season

10 IPL 2026 players the CricJosh Auction Rater says are overpaid: salary vs output, the metrics behind the rating, and the franchise lessons.

The Auction Rater scores every IPL 2026 contract on three axes: salary percentile within role, mid-season output normalised to matches played, and the historical comparable from past IPL seasons (a ₹15 Cr opener should produce at least what a ₹15 Cr opener produced two seasons ago). The model spits out an A+ to F grade per player. Below are the 10 contracts that have aged worst by mid-April 2026.

How the Rater Computes "Overpaid"

For each player, we calculate expected output from their salary band — e.g., a ₹14–18 Cr seam bowler is expected to take 14 wickets at an economy under 8.6 across 14 matches. We then compare to actual output through 41 league matches. Anything more than 35% below expectation is graded D or worse. Captaincy and intangibles get a small bonus — the rating doesn't punish a captain whose runs dipped because the side won.

The 10 Most Overpaid IPL 2026 Contracts

Rank	Player	Franchise	Salary	Output Index	Rater Grade
1	Mitchell Starc	DC	₹11.75 Cr	0.42	F
2	Venkatesh Iyer	KKR	₹23.75 Cr	0.51	F
3	Cameron Green	PBKS	₹14 Cr	0.55	D-
4	Glenn Maxwell	PBKS	₹4.2 Cr	0.58	D
5	Lockie Ferguson	KKR	₹6 Cr	0.61	D
6	Marcus Stoinis	PBKS	₹11 Cr	0.62	D
7	Mukesh Kumar	DC	₹8 Cr	0.64	D
8	Avesh Khan	LSG	₹9.75 Cr	0.67	D+
9	Naveen-ul-Haq	LSG	₹4.4 Cr	0.68	D+
10	Liam Livingstone	SRH	₹8.75 Cr	0.71	C-

#1 — Mitchell Starc (DC, ₹11.75 Cr)

Starc was the headline DC swing-bowler signing of the mega auction. By mid-April he had 7 wickets at an economy of 9.8. His PP-bowling strike rate against right-handers is the worst of his career, and Axar Patel's decision to use him in a four-over front-load has not unlocked the new-ball swing the franchise was paying for.

#2 — Venkatesh Iyer (KKR, ₹23.75 Cr)

The biggest single bid of the auction. Iyer's mid-season SR is 124 with three single-digit scores in his last five. Ajinkya Rahane has been slotting him at 4 with mixed results. The contract weighs heavier on KKR's purse than any other in the league, and the Output Index of 0.51 is the worst-to-spend ratio on the Rater.

#3 — Cameron Green (PBKS, ₹14 Cr)

PBKS bought Green to be the all-rounder anchor at 5; he's been bowling 1.4 overs per match because Shreyas Iyer prefers Maxwell-Curran-Stoinis as his middle-overs spin/medium options. Green's bat hasn't been the issue (SR 142) — it's the imbalance the contract creates.

#4–7 — The PBKS Overseas Stack

Iyer's PBKS spent ₹37+ crore on three overseas all-rounders (Green, Maxwell, Stoinis). Two have to sit out every match. The Rater penalises the franchise structurally — even when Maxwell hits 60 off 32, the bench equity erodes the contract value.

#8–10 — The Death-Bowler Pack

Avesh, Naveen, and Livingstone (used as a sixth bowler) all share one issue: economy in overs 17–20 is above 11. This is the league's most expensive role per ROI, and three of the four contracts above ₹4 Cr in this slot are underperforming.

Franchise Lessons from the Bottom 10

Three takeaways the front offices should be writing down:

1. Overseas-stack risk. PBKS's ₹37 Cr allocation across three foreign all-rounders is the year's most expensive structural error. Two-team sheets means at least one is in the dugout every game.
2. Captaincy premium ≠ form premium. Venkatesh Iyer's ₹23.75 Cr was driven by the perception that he was the next KKR captain. Rahane got the armband. Iyer is now an expensive 4 batting in a contract built for an all-purpose captain — see the Rahane KKR captain breakdown.

Counter-Cases — Contracts the Rater Loves

For balance, three contracts that have aged spectacularly:

• Ravindra Jadeja (RR, ₹14 Cr) — A+ grade. The Samson-Jadeja swap has been the auction's best return.
• Shreyas Iyer (PBKS, ₹26.75 Cr) — A grade. Captaincy + 387 runs at SR 152 + a top-three points-table position.
• Vaibhav Sooryavanshi (RR, ₹1.1 Cr) — A++ grade. 14-year-old with a 37-ball century and a pay-package the size of a Mumbai parking ticket.

How to Use the Auction Rater

Open the IPL 2026 Auction Rater tool and pick any contract. The tool returns the grade in three seconds. Front offices use it for trade-window prep; fans use it to check whether a punditry hot take has anything behind it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the Rater account for captaincy intangibles?

Yes. Captains get a 12% Output Index uplift to compensate for impact-on-team-result that doesn't show up in batting/bowling lines.

How often does the Rater re-grade?

After every match-day. Grades are dynamic — a player on D+ in mid-April can still climb to B by mid-May with a strong run-in.

Are Indian and overseas contracts rated differently?

Yes. The expected-output baseline is set per role and per nationality, since overseas slot scarcity changes the salary-to-output curve.

Why isn't Starc's experience factored in?

It is — historical comparables include his 2023 IPL return (₹24.75 Cr, 17 wickets). The Rater's grade reflects how he's performed against his own track record, not just league average.

Will the most-overpaid list change much by playoffs?

Marginally. ROI scores under 0.6 with 6 matches remaining rarely climb above 0.8 — the math is unforgiving past mid-season.

Related Reads

• IPL 2026 Auction Rater
• IPL 2026 biggest salary cuts at auction 2025-26
• IPL 2026 per-match cost leaders — most expensive per game
• IPL 2026 best foreign-slot ROI
• SA20 2026 best overseas signings retrospective — the parallel rand-for-rand value question across the South African league.
• Australia BBL 16 (2026-27) preview — the BBL draft economics that compare directly to IPL auction logic.

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Updated 2 May 2026 — IPL 2026 mid-season. Auction Rater grades reflect matches 1–41.